technically speaking

A Glance Back, a Look Ahead

In which I offer a one-page recapitulation of significant trends in 1995 and gaze into the crystal ball for 1996.

by Wm. Auckerman

I've been editor-in-chief of Computing Japan for over a year-and-a-half -- time enough to have developed some opinions about what's hot (and what's not), and the hubris to think that someone might care. Here, then, is my slate of nominations for the seminal trends of 1995 and their influence on events in 1996.

PC shipments. In the 1995 hardware market, the big news was volume growth. Initial predictions by market analysts pegged Japan's domestic PC shipments at about 3.9 million units, about a 20% increase over 1994 shipments (3.3 million). So much for wisdom of experts. Current estimates (depending on who you listen to) place 1995 shipments at anywhere from 5.3 million to 5.6 million units, a better than 60% jump. While the analysts seem to think that PC sales will slow down to anywhere from 25% to 33% increase for 1996, I'll go out on a limb and predict that, after a slow spring, Japan PC shipments will see another 50%-plus annual increase and surpass the 8 million mark for 1996.

Profits. Which isn't to suggest that makers will realize large profits. Real competition has finally hit Japan, and in their struggle to come out on top, makers will sacrifice profits for market share. The entry of new foreign competitors like Gateway 2000, Packard Bell, and Acer will intensify the struggle, and by year-end I predict that Japanese PC prices will be within 15% of a similarly-equipped model in the US.

NEC. Having entered the PC price war in earnest, NEC looks likely to hang on to an approximately 50% market share for 1995. Pundits who have eagerly predicted the impending demise of NEC's PC-98 series may be in for a disappointment in 1996 -- I predict that NEC's market share will rise, once again approaching the 60% realm. The DOS/V pack stood poised in 1995 to overtake NEC, but they missed their chance. Now, Windows 95J has hit the streets. DOS is dead, and if the NEC PC-98 version of Windows 95 is bug-free and fast, there will no longer be a clear choice between a PC98 computer or DOS/V machine. "Proprietary" becomes an archaic term of interest only to historians -- users won't know or care that the underlying NEC architecture is "non-standard," only that NEC offers great prices and service.

Software. Yes, the big event in the software market was on November 23 when, after much anticipation, Japanese Windows 95 was released. It will take time for the real impact of Win 95J to become clear (other than giving NEC a new lease on life), but my expectation is that it will have a bigger transformational effect on the Japanese PC world than in the US. For Japan, Windows 95 is an idea whose time has come -- and none too soon.

Networking. The Japanese corporate market is finally getting on the networking bandwagon. Thus, the cross-platform promise of Win 95J --to enable applications to run smoothly on both the PC98 and DOS/V machines, a convergence that Windows 3.1 pioneered with limited success --will seduce many managers in small- and medium-sized firms. Meanwhile, its integrated networking capability (there never was a Japanese version Windows for Workgroups) will win a place in the hearts of "the enterprise." It may take a while -- some corporations will be reluctant to invest in the switch -- but when new computers start being delivered with Windows 95J preinstalled, only the ojisan recidivists will strip it off to return to the comfortable world of Windows 3.1.

Great expectations. The road to Windows 95J ubiquity will not be without potholes, however. Microsoft (with the eager collusion of the popular media) has done such a masterful job of promoting Windows 95 as the Rosetta Stone of computing literacy that, especially among beginners, expectations are irrationally high. There will be a lot of disappointed novices when they discover that, even with Windows 95J, using a computer is still more complicated than punching a TV remote control. Some computers might even gather dust -- except for the lure of the Internet.

The Internet. Yes, the Japanese Internet is growing, and it will continue to grow unbridled for the foreseeable future. It would be easy to dismiss it as a fad -- but a sustainable fad, like golf. Even those who hate it will have to participate, to avoid being snubbed as bourgeoisie. Joining a prestigious provider will become the equivalent of joining a "name" golf club, and the so-called Internet cafes will proliferate (like driving ranges) as those who don't own a home computer or have an office connection seek a place to "practice." Not only will Japan soon be second only to the US in Internet users, but Japanese-language content will surpass by far all other languages but English by the end of 1996. (Which is not to suggest that expansion of the Japanese Internet service provider market will continue unabated. As the big Japanese companies start setting up content/connection sites, with nationwide access points, small providers will quickly fall by the wayside.)

Looks like that's all the predictions I have room for (and I haven't even mentioned DVD and PHS yet).ç



(c) Copyright 1996 by Computing Japan magazine