The Internet as a Model of Change
In our May issue, Mr. Thieme addressed the topic of how Japan will adapt
to, and contribute to the evolution of, the global community of the Internet.
This month, he looks at the more fundamental question of, "How is the
information revolution changing our jobs and our lives?"
by Richard Thieme
One of the most profound effects of networked computing -- of which the
Internet is both a metaphor and a vehicle -- has been to change the future
itself. Not the "real" future, whatever that might be, but how
we frame our future, how we think about it, and how we plan for it.
The needed changes in our view of the future -- which defines our possibilities
in life -- are exemplified by "scenario planning." Peter Schwarz
and the Global Business Network report that scenario planning was developed
when the oil crisis of 1973 shocked Shell Oil into realizing it needed better
tools for anticipating the shape of the future. Scenario planning acknowledges
that exponential change is making the world unthinkably complex, and the
future impossible to predict, but seeks to quantify as many uncertainties
as possible.
Knowledgeable people from diverse fields provide input by imagining a range
of possible futures. The resulting scenarios are quantified, and their prerequisite
social, economic, and political events are identified. Through frequent
comparison of these models with what subsequently happens, organizations
can prepare themselves to adapt and respond.
A transformational revolution
Think of scenario planning as a map for choosing our path through the future,
which can be defined as a set of branching possibilities actualized by events
that open sets of logic gates. In this, the future resembles the construction
of the information systems with which we interact, and scenario planning
simulates the structure of a computer program -- and, by extension, the
hyperlinked structure of the Internet.
The Internet, like the computer programs it resembles, teaches us how to
frame information as we interact with it, while at the same time it changes
us in fundamental ways. Paradoxically, we can view the Net as the model,
and human life as a simulation. All of our systems -- political, economic,
and social -- are in a process of rapid transformation driven by the revolution
in information technologies. It is a revolution that does not just change
this or that thing about our work and our lives; instead, it alters the
work itself, and it even transforms us.
Relearning to think
In Japan, "companyism" has fostered expectations of long-term
employment and security, but global currents in information technologies
threaten to undermine this deeply-rooted dependency. Exponential change
-- when everything is changing, everywhere at once -- and the manner in
which it affects the way we construct our future threatens the traditional
Japanese incremental and progressive mode of organizational learning.
The new contract between employer and employee was elucidated by Andrew
Grove, president of Intel. Responding to an employee who asked, "Will
my job still exist next year?" Grove answered honestly "No, your
job probably will not exist." He then offered to help the employee
identify new jobs that are likely to emerge (a form of scenario planning)
so that, armed with this knowledge, the employee could get the training
needed to have a reasonable expectation of being employable in the evolving
workplace.
The predicament of workers everywhere is that systemic change generates
fear, which in turn creates isolation and rigidity -- the very things we
must avoid during times of radical change. As Grove's response indicates,
the antidote is mutuality, feedback, and accountability. Only those organizations
that intentionally build structures capable of changing will generate the
conditions needed to remain flexible and responsive.
The qualities -- mutuality, feedback, and accountability -- necessary for
organizations to remain viable in the networked world are the same qualities
needed by individuals to cope with changes in the workplace. The major competitive
advantage of an organization or individual today is the capacity to morph
into new forms and behaviors appropriate to evolving conditions.
The Internet does globally what WANs and LANs do locally -- it redistributes
information throughout the system, putting it into the hands of people who
need it. In doing so, networks transform the roles of employees and supervisors
alike. Information systems administrators inevitably find the uses of their
authority redefined, becoming more like coaches than generals. While they
still have authority, it must be used to motivate empowered employees rather
than dictate to workplace troops.
The Japanese advantage
One danger of "companyism" is that corporate leaders can mistake
institutional culture and corporate identity -- which offer the illusion
of stability -- for the kind of culture that generates mutuality, feedback,
and accountability from the inside out. But companyism (predicated on a
long-term orientation, and the persistence and patience it requires) can
give Japanese organizations an advantage.
American companies often respond to competitive pressure by rapidly downsizing.
Many are now suffering the consequences of a vision that could not see past
the next quarter. As a worker at a telecommunications company told me regarding
the effects of massive restructuring at her company, "It was too much
too fast. They let go of too many experienced people, and the new people
don't understand the system. You learn how a system works by being part
of it, and that takes time. They didn't realize," she concluded, "that
people are the system."
Nothing is more deeply ingrained in Japanese culture than the knowledge
that people are the system. What sometimes looks like hesitation to rush
into the freedom of the Internet can also be seen as an acknowledgment of
the organic nature of systemic growth, the need to engage in "root-binding"
(nemawashi), and the necessity of including everyone in the gradual
process of adaptation.
In this respect, the Internet is a perfect fit for Japanese culture. The
ability to morph, which constitutes a competitive advantage, is not a solitary
task. We need a work group engaged in corporate learning in order to capture
sufficient information to know how to act, and then we need the support
of the group to transform that information into knowledge.
Knowledge as capital
Knowledge, not information, is the capital valued in the world today. The
simple-minded gathering and redistribution of information is not helpful.
I can tell you here, for example, that a new Infiniti has more computing
power than Apollo 13, but what do you gain from that fact? When information
overload is the problem, adding another brick to the pile doesn't help.
The Japanese passion for collecting information, however, is transformed
on the Internet into an advantage because the fundamental activity of gathering
data from every possible source generates cooperative learning. And that,
in turn, creates the virtual community that offers security.
An experienced manager recently complained to me that he doesn't know what
information is relevant out of the immense flow that comes to his terminal
over the Internet. Even if someone tells him what is important, he isn't
sure what he can do with it. By treating the Internet only as an source
of information, he is clinging to outmoded behaviors. Only by engaging in
the larger community made available by the Net will he avoid being overwhelmed
by data; the virtual community of the Net is both a filter and a platform
for action.
The Internet creates for the Japanese who use it a global form of companyism.
The mutuality they discover on the Net can root the Japanese more deeply
in their core culture; and that, in turn, tempers the very real danger that
the "foreign" influence of the Internet represents.
Members of a highly structured culture, such as Japanese society, can regard
too much freedom with trepidation. To feel secure as they exploit that freedom,
the Japanese must recreate themselves as a virtual culture that fences in
their virtual presence with the symbols and icons of a familiar cultural
identity. Those symbols will create safe boundaries in the limitless world
of virtual space and keep Japanese culture more or less steady as it speeds
into the unknown future.
Richard Thieme (rthieme@lifeworks.com)
is a professional speaker and business consultant. His focus is the impact
of technology, the human dimension of organizational change, and diversity.
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