Thomas Caldwell

Millennium Madness and the PC

In the more-than-two-years since I began writing this column, there is one question I have neglected to address. Not because it hasn't been asked (it has, lots of times), but because I didn't feel I had amassed a sufficient amount of data to form any sort of opinion, let alone make a prediction of things to come. That question is: Where do we go from here? The personal computer -- the multi-billion dollar industry that literally started in the garages and basements of a few visionaries -- has become a cornerstone of human existence (not to mention the existence of this and many other magazines). Yet a majority of people on this planet still do not own or use (and, in many cases, have never even touched) one of the little beasties that, to most of us in the developed world, has become as much a daily necessity as food, clothing, and shelter. The software we use, or new peripherals we have purchased, have become a part of everyday conversation.

What does this melding of humans and technology hold in store for us? Let's see how good I am using a virtual crystal ball.

Software

For the industry as a whole, most of the major changes we will be seeing over the remainder of the decade have already started to happen. The shrink-wrapped box of software, for example, will become a thing of the past by the turn of the century. The World Wide Web, or whatever supersedes it, will be the vehicle whereby most commercial software will be sold.

"Try Before You Buy" has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt to be the only honest way of selling software. Also, it is ecologically friendly, a fact that has been driven home to anyone who has ever had the painful experience of tossing an old, once-shrink-wrapped box of manuals and disks into the trash can.

Software upgrades, including those of operating systems (I predict you will be getting your next Windows upgrade from the Web), will become automatic, floppy disk-free, and painless. The Pointcast Network (http://www.pointcast.com) has already started doing this, and more companies will follow suit over the next few months. Look for computer trade shows to fade away as well. (Don't buy any real estate in Makuhari!)

Hardware

Hardware will continue to become cheaper, but much shorter lived than manufacturers are leading you to believe -- especially with laptops, and especially in Japan. (Planned obsolescence must be a Japanese invention). "Investment" is no longer a word that applies to computers, if it ever really did. Based on personal observation, most corporate types seem to only get about 18 months of life out of their laptops, while PC jocks tend to get 24 months.

Look for the traditional desktop to fade away within the next three years. As laptops become cheaper, more powerful, and feature rich, the need for a large box as anything less than a network server will become silly. The "brick system" of plugging a laptop into a large monitor and keyboard will be used by everyone.

The Internet

Look for USENET to get worse, not better. Not because the control freaks in government will clamp down on free speech (they've been trying to do that for a long time anyway), but because a lot of the more intelligent people will lose interest -- if they haven't already.

Unlike the original purpose -- a place where people could go to get information and share ideas -- USENET newsgroups have become battlegrounds for all sorts of nuts with assorted social shortcomings. Some of the more specialized groups are still functioning, but private e-mail forums are where mature adults have now turned to share ideas and swap experiences. While most are open to the public, unlike USENET they have a moderator who will waste no time kicking out anyone who starts to act like a bum. (The time-honored tradition of staying away from the riffraff: join a private club.)

Humans

On the human side, people will start to gravitate into two distinct groups: those who live by and for the computer, and those who actually live. Many of us have already begun to feel something I call "techno-revulsion": a feeling of just wanting to get away from anything that runs on electricity or has a keyboard (at least for a while). Contrary to some TV advertising that has recently begun to appear in Japan, intelligent businessmen on vacation will not be bringing a laptop with them to the beach to check in with the office. (Why are they called "vacations"?) There has to be a time to just turn it off -- work as well as the computer -- in order to stay sane.

Sadly, I'm also predicting a growth of psychological diseases brought on by too much computer usage and not enough exposure to live people. Information burnout will become more common. The introverted geeks who spend their lives in front of a computer screen will find themselves less and less employable as the "keyboard generation" enters the workplace. Intersocial skills, neglected during the roaring '80s, will be much sought after by employers. Liberal arts will be the thing to study at school in the coming years, as content and substance take on more importance than style and font size.

So, to answer the question, where we go from here is forward -- for better or for worse. Hopefully better.

Thomas Caldwell is a radio correspondent and Japan marketing manager for the United Press International Tokyo Bureau. E-mail: caldwell@gol.com. For a longer profile of Tom, and a link to his "new improved" Web site, go to http://www.computingjapan.com/magazine/bios.