Speeding to Nowhere

Six years ago, when I switched on my new Macintosh IIsi powered with a 30-MHz Moto 6030 chip, the Mac's smiling face was beaming at me in seconds, and I was quickly and productively working. Today, before I switch on my new Power Mac, running on a 120-MHz PowerPC 604 chip, I make sure I have a newspaper handy to read. In spite of the higher chip speeds, today's operating systems and applications put such a load on the CPU that both Macs and Windows PCs dawdle through the startup sequences.

The same goes for my modem. Even the half-ton, 1200-baud slab of iron I first owned was "faster" at grabbing e-mail than my current 28,800 itty-bitty speedster. Today, I have to wait comparative eons during the log-in process of getting onto the Internet - when I can log on at all during busy periods, that is.

Bound for a crash
And it's only getting worse. Last November, just one month after shipping 10X and then 12X CD-ROM drives in quick succession, Toshiba began sampling a 15X CD-ROM drive to PC vendors. Toshiba felt forced to upgrade so quickly because LG Electronics, a subsidiary of Korea's giant LG Group (formerly the Luck-Goldstar Group) had just announced a 16X CD-ROM drive. The new drives effectively made the previous models obsolete and put current inventories of other CD-ROM drive makers at risk. Who wants to buy a 10X drive, after all, when you know a 16X will be available in a couple of months?

Actually, in this particular case, the answer may depend on your CD-ROM collection, because these faster drives may not be able to play all your current software. The problem is that backstreet companies around the world are now stamping out CD-ROM discs for software companies by the millions, discs that don't conform to Red Book specifications (the industry guide for CD-ROM production technology).

This nonconformity is nothing new; such discs have been circulating for quite some time. You probably have some in your collection without even knowing it. But you'll quickly find out when you buy a faster drive.

Only a few major manufacturers around the world can both master and stamp out discs that fully meet the latest stringent Red Book specs. But this is not preventing an army of startups from purchasing their own monoline CD stampers from giants like Sony CBS, Matsushita, and Toshiba EMI, and stamping out wonky disks by the thousands for independent software vendors.

The lack of conformity wasn't noticeable when drive-speeds remained relatively slow. Problems began cropping up as 8X drives came onto the market, and the situation will only be exacerbated with the introduction of higher speed drives. It's another case of the industry getting caught up in a speed race that is bound to end in a crash - for end users stuck with unplayable discs, and for the drive makers who end up with unmarketable slower drives.

The obsolescence game
Stressing speed over satisfaction is particularly apparent in the PC market. Intel has used its muscle to nudge obliging PC vendors into upgrading their wares at a fast clip with a series of ever-speedier chips: 486, 486DX, 486DX4, 75-MHz Pentium... and 166-MHz Pentium. Now, the 200-MHz barrier is about to be shattered, and the Pentium Pro is the chip to have - at least for the next few months. (The PowerPC microprocessor group is working equally hard to be just as speedy in its corner of the market.)

With literally billions of dollars now going into building new microprocessor fabs, chip companies can't afford to wait for end users to take their own sweet time about upgrading. So gullible users are being instilled with the fear of falling behind, or barraged with sexy ads, to get them to open their wallets at ever-shorter intervals.

The microprocessor has now taken on the glamorous, but fickle, aura of the fashion world. Don't get caught with last year's model, goes the message: the industry is depending on you.

In the meantime, end users and corporate information systems managers are becoming thoroughly disgruntled with this expensive game of obsolescence. When the upgrade cycle came around yearly, at least you had a few months to enjoy the newness of your purchase before falling behind the herd. Today, though, product cycles are apparently down to three months. Now, even before you take your new PC out of the box, a trade press article has already consigned it to yesterday's model heap.

The computer industry and users alike would do well in taking to heart the warning for reckless car drivers: "Speeding gets you nowhere, fast."

Freelance writer John Boyd is the Tokyo correspondent for InformationWeek and writes the long-running weekly Computer Corner column in the Japan Times. You can contact him at 6840615@mcimail.com.