Looking Back, and Looking Ahead

As I sit down to write this month's column, I can't help but reflect back to the first time I put pencil to paper, over two years and 24 columns ago. Japan's computer scene was a completely different world back then. The Macintosh had just become the #2 selling computer, and the DOS/V standard was taking hold, signaling the end of the hardware predominance of NEC. Local area networks (LANs) had just been discovered. And with the birth of the World Wide Web poised to launch the Internet boom, there were only a handful of commercial Internet Service Providers (ISPs) with less than two T1 lines worth of international bandwidth.

Now, when looking at Japan's computer industry, we see a hardware market with multiple participants that is beginning to look strikingly similar to the US market. The LAN has already been replaced by the intranet. The Ministry of International Trade and Industry is spending over JPY30 billion on electronic commerce pilot programs, and there are hundreds of Japanese ISPs with over 200M-bps of bandwidth to the US and other countries.

In addition, we have seen the launch of a several US subsidiaries: Ascend Japan, Netscape KK, VeriSign Japan, Nihon-RSA, AOL Japan, and Yahoo Japan, to name just a few. The presence of these companies signifies the importance of the Japanese information technology market and growing Internet industry.

I must admit that, over the past two years, it has been hard for me to find the right tone for this column. I've wavered between a business slant, an end user focus, and a neutral newsy "just the facts" approach. It is time to change again.

Two years ago, I felt the need to educate Computing Japan's readers on the basics of the Internet, since it was so new to Japan. I don't feel that need now, since Japan's Internet market has matured substantially in the past two years.

Another reason to change is the fact that all of my columns (along with the rest of the magazine) are being archived on Computing Japan's website (http://www.computingjapan.com). While this offers the benefit of increased exposure and readership, it also means that the entire Internet has access. It seems inappropriate to be writing about the basics of Internet functionality to that audience.

So, from this month's column I will redefine my approach. In 1997, "The Digital Forest" will focus on the business of the Internet. This is a vast topic, which I have divided into three main groups:

  • Electronic marketing of conventional products and services. This view treats the Internet as a fourth media type (after print, broadcast, and outdoor media) and is concerned mainly with new methods of advertising, promotion, customer tracking, and market research.

  • Provision of Internet-related services. This includes Internet clients, servers, infrastructure, and access; multimedia content creation; software that adds functionality to sites; and the mini-industry that has grown around servicing websites.

  • Digital products and electronic payment systems. This is the newest and most exciting (but most difficult to predict) category of Internet technology. It includes the growing trend of distributing software electronically, marketing digital information products and -- most importantly -- new digital payment mechanisms like digital cash and smart cards.

It is hard to report on something as inherently global as the Internet without occasionally covering news and events in other regions. In keeping with this magazine's name, however, I will focus on Japan first and foremost.

What's to come?

Now, some predictions of what we will see in 1997:

  • Japan will reach the global rank of #2 in terms of most Internet hosts.

  • The number of Internet users in Japan will top 5 million.

  • Televisions that connect to the Internet will gain in popularity, with Japanese companies being the first to merge the TV and Internet browsing on a mass scale.

  • A large smart card pilot test will be launched, and possibly even a limited public smart card system.

  • Network gaming via home game machines (PlayStation, Saturn, etc.) will become the rage.

  • Content channels will reach the desktop. Similar to the model first introduced by Pointcast, several new technologies will deliver customized personal content.

  • Intranets will proliferate in the workplace. Due to the late start of networking in Japan, intranets could well outnumber conventional LANs by this time next year.

This year looks to be an exciting time filled with lots of potential opportunity. I wish you all the best of luck in your particular field and, as always, feel free to send me your comments and questions.

Finally, I would like to point you to two websites I maintain that relate closely to this column. One is the Japan Web Guide (http://www.gol.com/jguide), which showcases the top websites in Japan, and the other is the Internet CommerceGuide (http://www2.metasys.co.jp/commerce/), offering a comprehensive guide to business on the Internet (with special attention given to Japan).

Send your comments or questions directly to Forest at forest@gol.com, or via the editorial staff to editors@cjmag.co.jp (fax 03-3499-2199).