Real Nerds Don't use Floppies [continued]Jockeying for market leadership
Over at Sony, Yanaga is adamant about not discussing pricing plans for the HiFD, despite a product announcement that was
five months old at press time. So, when is the HiFD going to launch? The October 1997 announcement cited a spring 1998 release, but as of late March there was still no hint that Sony was preparing to ship as promised. On the contrary, industry rumor has it that the HiFD could be delayed until summer. Yanaga has added to the doubt by commenting -- only partly in jest -- that "no one has ever defined the length of spring."
Iomega and Imation, meanwhile, are hustling to get their products accepted in the market before Sony finally enters the fray by firing its bigger technology guns. Iomega has the advantage of a pull-demand market for the Zip that has grown out of its aftermarket success. "The Zip's 12-million installed base is a significant advantage for Iomega," acknowledges Dataquest Japan's Suzuki. "And though drives have mainly gone to the aftermarket, maybe 20% or 30% of shipments in 1997 went to OEMs." Iomega's Robison confirms as much, saying that in the last quarter, 35% of Zip drive shipments went to the OEM market.
Demand for built-in Zip drives is particularly strong with direct sales PC vendors that have solid build-to-order (BTO) programs and whose customers are generally knowledgeable. Iomega is helping by providing versions of its Zip drive for each popular PC segment. "We have products for the notebook, the desktop, and the aftermarket, and we're working with most of the top ten PC vendors," says Robison. He adds that Compaq is shipping Zip drives in some of its Presario models, and "we're having wonderful success with Dell, and Apple, too -- particularly in the US." Micron and Gateway 2000 have also announced plans to ship some models incorporating the Zip.
IBM Japan recently announced the Zip drive would ship as standard on one new Aptiva model. Robison says Iomega is also working with notebook PC vendors, including Fujitsu and Hitachi. "We're close to finalizing license agreements with several companies."
An NEC official says NEC has begun manufacturing the Zip "for some of our own models, but it's not in mass production." But he adds the Imation's SuperDisk is also under consideration for possible licensing.
Imation is busy drumming up support after making a slow start. The SuperDisk has been available for a couple of years, but total sales have only reached 1.4 million, according to the company's own data. Ichimura says that Imation has been putting much of its efforts into first building up a marketing and technology infrastructure -- one that he says is now in place. He stresses that PC BIOS vendors, Microsoft's Windows operating systems, and IBM's OS/2 now all support the SuperDisk as a bootable drive, making it an easy swap for the floppy.
The mobile market
"The SuperDisk's power consumption is much lower than [that of] the Zip drive," points out Dataquest Japan's Suzuki. "That's an advantage with mobile computers. And with its backward compatibility, it has another advantage [over the Zip] because most mobile computers don't have space for two disk drives."
Sharp is the first PC vendor to offer the SuperDisk as standard (on one of its Mebius Note models). Panasonic offers it as an option in one of its Pro Note portables. And Imation's Ichimura says there may have been more announcements from PC vendors in the US and Japan by the time you read this; these will include both desktop and notebook models in the US, and notebooks in Japan.
Currently, in the US, Taiwan-based Acer America is offering the SuperDisk as an option, as is IBM for its ThinkPad 770 Ultra. NEC Packard Bell, meanwhile, is shipping a SuperDisk-equipped Versa model. Ichimura denies rumors that Compaq has dropped the SuperDisk. Rather, he explains that since Compaq has now switched to BTO, it offers the SuperDisk as an option along with other products.
While Imation and Iomega make a grab for the portable market, Sony is conspicuous by its absence. The company has announced a 1-inch drive suitable for the desktop market, but there's no word yet on a half-inch drive to match products from the competition.
Time will tell
Analyst Suzuki agrees. "It's too early yet to decide who is the winner," he cautions. Though Sony's product may not ship until the second half of this year, says Suzuki, its specifications make it very attractive, and a reason for PC vendors to wait and see.
Sony's Yanaga points out that the number of Zip drives so far shipped to PC vendors is tiny when compared to the hundreds of millions of PCs installed around the world. And he dismisses the SuperDisk as a serious competitor, considering it a "low concept" product. "The concept was just to make [a floppy disk] with larger capacity using current performance." The OEM market has already evaluated it unfavorably, he argues, given the relatively small volume of shipments.
"Sony's concept is higher," acknowledges Imation's Ichimura. "Their problem is timing. They said spring, but that is no longer certain. And they have only [announced] a one-inch drive, when a half-inch drive is a priority for the notebook market, especially in Japan. We are providing both types now."
As for the SuperDisk's relatively slow speed, Ichimura contends that is not a problem. "It runs about five times faster than a floppy. We have positioned it as a replacement for the floppy disk, so users don't think it's slow at all. Besides," he adds, "most users work with small files, where speed is not an issue."
Sony's Yanaga is confident, however, that, "Customers will choose the best technology. And with our partners, quality, and OEM experience -- we're already closely working with several PC manufacturers in the US right now -- there is just no reason to lose."
But, as Sony knows better than most, superior technology does not necessarily win the fight: witness the Betamax vs. VHS war. In the race to replace the floppy, the three competitors all carry handicaps, as well as certain advantages. It may be some time before we find out which of them is going to replace the floppy. John Boyd is a Japan-based freelance writer who covers the local IT scene for a variety of publications. He writes the monthly Industry Eye column for Computing Japan.
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